Our Services

  • Dealmaking

  • Corporate Strategy

  • Foreign Negotiations

  • Complex and Political Negotiations

We are an outcomes based forecasting service leveraging prediction technology with expertise. We forecast negotiations across a range of political and business and economic decisions. We can advise how to shape an outcome for a quicker and better resolution.

Each engagement is a custom data and computationally intensive project tailored to the client. The service has been used to forecast outcomes from major corporate dealmaking to international negotiations. The service has been used by leading Fortune 500 companies and government. We have received substantial positive press for making outperforming public forecasts. We offer a service that is over 90% accurate even when the experts are wrong, per a declassified review from the CIA. We can accurately forecast unexpected outcomes, not just events others think will happen.

We offer a means to forecast the outcome of a negotiation, assess the prospect of tail-risk events in anticipated or ongoing negotiations. We can help increase the ability to influence others and so improve the outcome of negotiations and advocacy efforts. We can anticipate reactions of the other parties in negotiations and help identify winning strategies. “Forewarned is forearmed.”

We can identify when a specific participant or coalition of interests will emerge as a roadblock to reaching agreement on an issue. We can also indicate preventative measures. When negotiations or advocacy are not progressing, we can often identify ways to get the process back on track.

Jonathan implements under special license the game theory forecast model developed by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, a New York University professor and Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institute, Stanford University. The New York Times described Bruce as one of the world's most prominent game theorists.

A declassified review from the CIA found the technology has an over 90% accuracy and is twice as likely to hit the bullseye compared to the Agency’s in-house experts. Following the review, the technology was reportedly used at CIA over 1200 times in over 75 countries across a range of issues. The accuracy description from the sample was consistent with the declassified report. A study from the British Journal of Political Science also confirms the 90% figure. Our technology has since been refined, outperforming the technology used at the time of the declassified review.